The rising price of food
Reports of rising food prices
A couple of years ago the BBC reported dramatic rises in the price of various basic foodstuffs (http://bbc.co.uk/costoffood). The BBC repeated the warning in an item published in May of 2011 (www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11177214). It seems that in 2009 prices fell back but rose again in 2010 and may still be increasing. This is a global issue but affects people in developing countries more than those in the developed nations. Whilst in this country we may grumble about increases in the price of food and fuel in the poorer parts of the world it could be a matter of life or death for some.
The price rises may be attributed to a number of causes. Australia is the world's third biggest sugar producer and floods in early 2011 caused fears about reduced production which resulted in price rises. Forest fires in the Russian countryside in 2010 wiped out a quarter of Russia’s grain crop. A ban on Russian wheat exports followed. Extra demand from rapidly developing countries such as China and India plays a part. Also the consumption of increasing amounts of meat in those countries increases demand for cerials. It is said to take 7 kilograms of grain to produce just 1 kilogram of meat. Diversion of land from food crop production to biofuel production means less land available for food crops. In addition to those already mentioned there two factors that are difficult to ignore and these are the ever increasing world population and our dependance on dwindling supplies of crude oil.
World population is currently in excess of 6.5 billion people and expected to go on rising to 9 billion in 2050. This is a huge number of mouths to feed. At the same time people in developing countries will aspire to the same sorts of lifestyle that many enjoy in the western world. This puts tremendous pressure on the planet, not just in terms of our abilty to produce food, but in terms of all natural resources.
Return to top of pageDependency on oil
The world has become dependent on oil for transport, energy production, petrochemicals and plastics. Agriculture depends heavily on fertilizer, pesticides and machinery which in turn depends on a ready supply of affordable crude oil. Unfortunately oil is a fossil fuel and we have probably already passed the point of peak production, although there is some uncertainty about this.
The deposits that formed oil are believed to have been laid down in two periods 150 and 90 million years ago. Homo Sapiens first appeared about 195,000 years ago. Drilling for oil in the USA began in the middle of the nineteenth century. In the USA production peaked in 1970 and is now well in decline. Both the USA and UK are net importers of oil with the UK's period of surplus lasting just 25 years from 1980 to 2005. In the space of about 150 years we have used up much of the reserves of crude oil. In terms of the history of humankind this is a remarkably short period of time.
Return to top of pageEcological Footprint
It is not just oil that is running out. Other resources are being over exploited. The concept of an 'Ecological Footprint' is a simple way of helping people to appreciate just how sustainable, or otherwise, our lifestyles are. For each country it is possible to calculate the biocapacity and the demand in terms of global hectares (a productivity weighted area) per person . If the latter exceeds the former then that country is in deficit.
National information is published in the "Ecological Footprint Atlas 2010" (see www.footprintnetwork.org) For the UK the figures, in terms of global hectares per person, were 1.34 for biocapacity and 4.89 for ecological footprint of consumption giving a deficit of 3.55. For the USA the figures were 3.87 and 8.00 giving a deficit of 4.13. For the whole world the figures were 1.78 and 2.70 giving a deficit of 0.92.
One way of visualising this is to think in terms of the number of planets we would need to meet demand. For the world as a whole this would be about 1.52 planet Earths. This overshoot results in a depletion of Earth's natural capital and a build up of waste.
Unless we get back in balance with what the planet can supply the problems seem set to increase and we might expect shortages of all natural resources not just food. Getting demand back in line with what the planet can supply is a different problem to that of global climate change but it is related. Both problems can be solved but the feeble efforts our polticians have made so far does not inspire confidence.
It seems that many people are prepeared to continue with 'business as usual' but that is not an option. Many people simply do not realise the dramatic changes that will be necessary in order to tackle these problems effectively. The problems have to be tackled if a global crisis is to avoided, that is if it is not already too late. One thing is certain and that is it will be the world's poor and vulnerable who will suffer most if the problems are not addressed in an effective and timely manner.
Return to top of pageFood security
In addition to rising food prices there is another factor that is quite worrying and that is the purchase of large tracts of land by international corporations. According to a July 2009 report in the Guardian newspaper an area half the size of Europe's farmland was targeted for purchase in the space of just six months.
The land being taken over is in countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Sudan, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Zambia. This is not necessarily a bad thing if the land is used responsibly and in an environmentally sustainable way. Indeed it could be good news if the land becomes more productive as a result.
The concern is over what happens if food prices continue to rise causing even greater shortages in the countries where land has been sold. There is also concern over what might happen if the land is not used in a sustainable way, particularly where water supplies may be limited and soils vulnerable to overuse.
Not all the land is being used for food production. It has been reported that a Chinese company ZTE Agribusiness is looking to establish a one million hectare palm oil plantation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The palm oil is said to be destined for bio-fuel production.
In May 2011 an article in New Scientist reported that organisations in China, India and Saudi Arabia have leased vast tracts of land in sub-Saharan Africa. The article claims that between 2004 and 2009 Saudi Arabia leased 376,000 hectares of land in Sudan to grow wheat and rice.
In June 2011 it was reported that an estimated 10 million people across the Horn of Africa faced a severe food crisis following a prolonged drought in the region. If we do not learn to live more sustainably more and more of the world's poor will suffer.
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